As the days get shorter, the anticipation for Peak season grows. It’s the most demanding, yet rewarding, time of the year for any e-commerce business. While managing inventory is a big piece of the puzzle, a truly successful Peak season hinges on something bigger: a smart and dynamic shipping forecast. This isn’t just about knowing what to stock; it’s about preparing your entire operation, from warehouse staff to shipping materials, for the surge to come.
Getting your forecast right means you can meet customer expectations without the last-minute stress. It allows you to work seamlessly with your shipping provider to ensure every package is picked up on time and keeps moving. Here are a few steps to help you build a forecast that sets you up for success.
Look to the Past to Predict the Future
Your own history is your best teacher. Start by diving into last year’s data to create a solid baseline. Don’t just look at total sales; break it down with more detail. When did the first spike hit? Which products were the top sellers during Black Friday versus the week before Christmas? Did specific items get returned more often? Identifying these patterns will help you predict not only sales volume but also the flow of returns in January.
Look beyond just the sales figures. Analyze your shipping data. Were there specific days when your volume unexpectedly doubled, putting a strain on your team? Did you see a shift in where your orders were going, which might impact delivery times? Knowing these historical pressure points can help you anticipate them this year. Understanding these nuances helps you create a more accurate and actionable forecast.
Connect with Your Marketing and Sales Teams
Your historical data provides the baseline, but your upcoming promotions are what will shape the demand curve. A successful forecast is a team effort. Sit down with your marketing and sales departments to get a clear picture of the entire Peak season calendar. A simple question like, “What are our biggest promotions and when do they launch?” can be invaluable.
Are you planning a major Black Friday promotion or a series of smaller “flash sales” throughout December? Is there a new product launching that’s expected to be a big hit? Every marketing campaign, email blast, and social media push is designed to drive sales. By aligning your forecast with these initiatives, you can anticipate surges before they happen, ensuring you have the right inventory and resources ready to go. This collaboration turns forecasting from a reactive task into a proactive strategy.
Forecast Beyond the Box
A great forecast goes beyond just inventory. It informs your entire operational plan. Once you have a handle on your expected order volume, you can start planning for the resources needed to fulfill it. An accurate forecast helps prevent the kind of bottlenecks that can slow you down when you can least afford it.
Think about your staffing. Will you need to hire seasonal help for your warehouse? When should they start to be fully trained and effective before the main rush? Also, consider your supplies. Running out of boxes, tape, or packing materials during a sales spike can bring your operation to a halt. Use your volume forecast to project your supply needs and order in advance, avoiding potential shortages and rush shipping fees. Don’t forget your customer service team; prepare them for the increase in order inquiries and tracking questions that comes with higher volume.
Work with Amazon Shipping to Lock in Your Plan
Your shipping provider is a critical partner in your Peak season success. Sharing your forecast with them is one of the most important steps you can take. To make this easy, we provide forecasting tools directly in your Amazon Shipping account. We automatically calculate a forecast for you based on your shipment history over the past eight weeks, giving you a helpful starting point.
You can then easily adjust this forecast in the Pickups calendar to reflect your planned promotions. This allows you to look ahead and modify your expected shipment volume for up to three months in the future, ensuring your plans for Black Friday and beyond are accounted for. When we know what to expect, we can plan accordingly. At Amazon Shipping, we use your forecast to inform our own dynamic planning. Our systems use advanced machine learning tools to ensure we have the right-sized vehicles and the right number of drivers ready for your pickups.
This proactive communication helps us accommodate your needs, even when they change. As one of our shippers, Universal Yums, noted during a recent Peak, “Our volumes were coming in drastically different than our projections. Amazon Shipping was easily able to accommodate. We were able to request ad hoc trucks... and get a rescue in to pick up volume, which was great.”
When your forecast and your shipping plan are in sync, you create a seamless operation from your warehouse to your customer’s door. That’s how Peak season meets Peak reliability. Let’s work together to make this your most successful Peak season yet.